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Different ensemble systems have different numbers of ensemble members and the more ensemble members there are, the better the forecast will be as it will take into account a wider range of possibilities. If the ensembles disagree, it’s wise not to put too much confidence in one outcome or another. If all, or almost all, the ensemble members agree on a particular outcome, you can have high confidence that that outcome will occur. Ensembles are a great tool for gauging uncertainty in a forecast. Each one of these ideas will create its own outcome, known as an ensemble member. Ensembles attempt to fix this problem by starting the model with a bunch of ideas of what the atmosphere could be doing right now. Any small error in the weather model initially due to this gap in observation is compounded exponentially out through time due to chaos. Because we can’t observe every tiny bit of air in our atmosphere, our picture of the weather currently is incomplete.
#Radar weather santa cruz plus
#Radar weather santa cruz archive
Base reflectivity (with archive since 1991).Radar & Lightning Radar & Lightning Radar.Forecast Ensemble Heatmaps (Up to 5 models, multiple runs, graph up to 16 days) EXTRA.Forecast Ensemble (Up to 5 models, multiple runs, graph up to 16 days).Forecast XL (Graph and table up to 10 days - choose your model).14 day forecast (ECMWF-IFS/EPS, graphs with ranges).Meteograms (Graph 3-5 days - choose your model).Weather overview (Next hours and days, 14 day forecast).Tropical cyclone tracks (ECMWF/Ensemble).Area drought status: “ Severe Drought” for most of the viewing area with “Extreme Drought” in southern San Benito and southeastern Monterey Counties. El Niño/La Niña STATUS: La Niña Advisory *Note: Little to no precipitation typically falls this time of year. The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for June 24 th – 30 th calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and near normal* precipitation. This should be the only impacted timeframe, after which we are expected to get more heat and sunshine. We are seeing increased probability of monsoonal moisture to the southwest causing some unstable conditions in our area late Wednesday/early Thursday. Upper 90s and low 100s are likely to be seen across the interior through Thursday while we'll see a majority of upper 70s to mid 80s at the coast. By afternoon, the risk of storms should be diminished and we will be seeing another round of very hot temperatures.Įxtended: Tuesday may have been the peak of the warming trend, but the heat isn't necessarily going anywhere. Thursday: The threat of isolated thunderstorms and dry lightning will linger all the way through the very early hours of Thursday morning. Any lightning strike will pose a significant wildfire threat, so it is essential to have an emergency plan as well as a reliable way of receiving local weather alerts. Keep a close eye on the skies beginning late afternoon as a push of monsoonal moisture has the potential to cause isolated thunderstorms and dry lightning strikes in the area. The average inland high will be 95 degrees, and even coastal cities will lean toward upper 80s. Wednesday: Inland may not see quite as many spots in the triple digits Wednesday, but overall there will be little relief from the heat. Patchy low clouds are possible around coastal Monterey Bay. Very little wind is expected, but the direction of flow will gradually shift and take on a southwesterly orientation. Overnight: Temperatures are expected to stay comfortable/mild, with lows in the 50s and 60s. Finally, children and pets should never be left unattended in a car or any hot environment, regardless of the circumstance. Heat-sensitive individuals such as children, pets, the elderly, and those without access to an air conditioned environment should be monitored closely. Do not walk pets if the pavement is too hot for your hand to touch. For those who work outdoors, take regular breaks to cool down and re hydrate. Drink lots of water and try to limit time outside as much as possible. Risk for heat-related illnesses including but not limited to dehydration, heat exhaustion, and heat stroke is extremely elevated in these conditions. Expect extremely hot and dry conditions with inland high temperatures in the upper 90s and 100s.